Weekly Ukraine war summary: “Gray zone” in Selydove, maneuver warfare in Kursk, Russia deploys Soviet BRDM-2 scout cars due to APC shortage

In this week’s summary:

• Russian forces have entered the town of Selydove in the Pokrovsk sector, turning it into a “gray zone.”
• Maneuver warfare is unfolding on the western flank of the Ukrainian army’s bridgehead in Kursk, with Russian forces advancing amid counterattacks mounted by the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU).
• “Decoy drones” and cluster munitions have been deployed in Russian air raids on Ukraine.
• Ukrainian attacks struck major defense factories and four distilleries inside Russia.
• A former scout from Russia’s “Storm” unit has alleged that some of his fellow soldiers were “zeroed out” (executed) on orders from the regimental commander.
• 581 Ukrainian children have died and 1,649 have been injured since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022, as per a report from Ukraine’s juvenile prosecutors.
• France and the UK are providing military aid to Ukraine using frozen Russian assets.
• Russia is reactivating Soviet-era BRDM-2 armored scout cars and deploying them to the front lines, likely due to dwindling stocks of armored personnel carriers (APCs).

Situation at the front

The main focus of Russian operations this week was the town of Selydove in the southern part of the Pokrovsk sector. Initially, Russian forces secured the town’s eastern outskirts, advancing with armored vehicles and on foot, eventually raising their flag over a building in the center of the town. Ukrainian sources on Telegram claimed that the group was “neutralized” shortly thereafter, but AFU units were unable to regain a foothold in the area. The town appears to have turned into a complete “gray zone” due to continuous Russian attacks. There were also reports of Russian forces breaking through toward Vyshneve, potentially disrupting Ukrainian supply lines to Selydove.

To the south of Selydove, Russian forces continued their offensive (1, 2) on the outskirts of Maksymilyanivka (Russia claimed to have captured the village last week), aiming to advance toward the town of Kurakhove. They raised a flag on the eastern edge of the “Energetik” dacha plots, located within Kurakhove’s town limits. Further along this axis, Russian forces have appeared near Izmailivka, west of Hirnik, which could indicate that one of the town's supply routes has been severed.

In the Chasiv Yar area, Ukrainian forces slowed the Russian advance toward the Siverskyi Donets-Donbas canal around Klischiivka and Kurdiumivka, with the furthest Russian flag geolocated about 2.5 km past the canal. Northward, gains officially reported by Russia seemed overstated — while the Ministry of Defense (MoD) in Moscow claimed to have captured Serebrianka on the Siverskyi bulge, this was disputed by Russian personnel on the ground. Russia’s pro-war commentators have once again accused the local commanders of disinformation and command failures in the area.

Further north, however, Russian forces made more tangible gains near the Oskil River around Kruhliakivka after months of heavy fighting, splitting the Ukrainian bridgehead on the river's right bank — this despite Kruhliakivka being cleared by Ukrainian special forces on Oct. 18. Ukrainian forces reported a bridge west of Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi was attacked, which is likely to further strain Ukrainian resupply efforts. Ukrainian military analyst Kostiantyn Mashovets suggested that the Russian command aims to secure Kupiansk to facilitate a push toward Sloviansk and Kramatorsk from the north.

The most dynamic action unfolded in the Kursk Region, with Russian forces pushing into the western flank of the Ukrainian foothold amid heavy AFU counterattacks. Despite significant Russian casualties, including losses within the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade (1, 2, 3, 4), Russian forces secured footholds in Lyubimovka and Olgovka, with the latter reportedly almost completely destroyed. However, Ukrainian forces managed to regain ground and restore their positions along the Lyubimovka — Zelenyi Shliakh — Novoivanovka line through multiple counterattacks, aided by American-supplied equipment.

Meanwhile, reports from South Korean intelligence indicate that North Korea’s military presence in Russia has grown to 3,000 personnel, prompting Seoul to consider (1, 2) sending its military observers and translators and supplying arms directly to Ukraine.

The Insider and Ukraine’s “Nash Vykhod” (lit. “Our Exit”) project have published a video report on soldiers who served in Russia’s “Storm” units before being captured by the AFU. They describe how Russia’s MoD recruits prisoners, sending those who disobey orders to these units, and recount the relentless “meat-grinder assaults,” in which few attackers make it out alive.

Mutual strikes and sabotage

The Ukrainian Air Force Command reported 517 drones — including Iranian-designed Shaheds — launched by Russia over the past week (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7), with 307 shot down and 152 “radar-lost” (some due to electronic warfare). Close to 10 ballistic and air-to-surface guided missiles were also reportedly launched.

One of the Shahed drones was shot down by Belarusian air defenses after it entered the country’s airspace from Ukraine. Another Shahed drone — branded as the “Geran-2” by Russia — demonstrated that it could be used to transmit video in-flight, though Ukrainian military technical expert Serhii “Flash” Beskrestnov noted that the feature wasn’t new, and the low video quality made it difficult to make out anything significant. Russia was also noted to have employed “decoy drones,” one of which was intercepted by a first-person-view (FPV) UAV. Also, for the first time, a Russian Kh-69 guided missile launched at Ukraine was found to be equipped with a cluster munition warhead.

Throughout the week, Russian forces launched attacks using guided aerial bombs in the Sumy Region, injuring seven people and causing emergency power outages. Strikes on Zaporizhzhia (1, 2) resulted in two deaths and 23 injuries, while 17 people, including a rescue worker, were injured in Kryvyi Rih. In Kharkiv, 12 civilians were wounded, and in Kupiansk, one person was killed and 10 were injured. Frontline towns in the Donetsk Region — Myrnohrad, Kurakhove, and Novoukrainka — were also shelled. A locomotive depot in Pokrovsk was also damaged following a Russian attack.

Russia's Defense Ministry, for its part, reported (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8) intercepts of 194 Ukrainian fixed-wing drones and a single balloon over internationally recognized Russian territory and occupied Crimea over the past week. Ukraine struck the following targets:

• An electric substation in St. Petersburg (cutting power to 300 homes);
• The “Kremniy EL” factory in Bryansk, which makes microelectronics for the Russian military (a press release published by the plant indicated that production was halted);
• The Sverdlov Plant, one of Russia’s largest manufacturers of military explosives, located in the town of Dzerzhinsk in the Nizhny Novgorod Region, saw one of its workshops damaged after a drone strike;
• Four distilleries across the Tula, Tambov, and Voronezh regions;
• A Russian mobile radar station in occupied Crimea.

Losses

Russia and Ukraine completed another prisoner exchange on Oct. 18, with 95 POWs returning home on both sides. The Ukrainian group included 34 “Azov” Regiment soldiers held in Russian captivity for over two years since the siege of Mariupol in 2022. The group also included 48 Ukrainians sentenced by courts both in Russia and Russian-occupied Ukraine, with 20 of them serving life sentences. Four Chechen soldiers were also returned to Russia — despite previous assurances from “Akhmat” special forces commander Apti Alaudinov that they would not be included in any exchanges.

Russian pro-war blogger Maxim Kalashnikov, citing another pro-war channel, reported that soldiers from Russia’s 19th Tank Regiment of the 25th Army, who had recorded a video appeal over threats of execution, were thrown into a detention pit, and “only one made it out alive.”

In a video statement, former senior scout from the regiment’s “Storm” unit, Vitaly Degtyarenko, explained that the regiment’s commander, known by the codename “Pioneer,” allegedly “zeroed out” (executed) several soldiers — codenamed Elvis, Prok, Maloy, Dolomit, Gorilla, Masyanya, and Hammer — after they refused to follow orders. Degtyarenko, who subsequently deserted, expressed fears for his own life, concerned he might also be executed as a witness to these actions.

Ukraine’s juvenile prosecutors reported that as of Oct. 22, 2024, more than 2,230 children have become casualties of Russia’s invasion: 581 have been killed and over 1,649 have suffered varying degrees of injuries. The highest child casualty counts were recorded in the Donetsk (595), Kharkiv (453), Dnipropetrovsk (178), Kherson (180), Kyiv (133), and Zaporizhzhia (145) regions.

Weapons and military vehicles

During a visit to Kyiv, U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin announced a new package of military aid for Ukraine under the Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA). This package includes ammunition for air defense systems, artillery rounds, and HIMARS rockets, along with tracked M113 armored personnel carriers. Meanwhile, U.S. defense corporation Northrop Grumman reported its plans to double the production of engines for Lockheed Martin’s Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System (GMLRS) launched from HIMARS and M270 systems.

France will provide Ukraine with new weaponry and ammunition funded through profits from frozen Russian assets, including 12 Caesar self-propelled howitzers and Aster surface-to-air missiles for the SAMP-T air defense system. A report by the publication La Tribune confirmed that Ukraine’s armed forces will likely receive their first three Mirage 2000 fighter jets from France in the first quarter of 2025.

The UK will also use revenue from Russian assets to secure a loan of £2.3 billion ($2.9 billion) for Ukraine to purchase air defense and artillery systems. The UK has also allocated £120 million ($155 million) to support the protection of the “maritime corridor in the Black Sea” — a strategic route facilitating the supply of grain from Ukraine to global markets — as Russia launched a series of attacks on port infrastructure and civilian vessels.

In Russia, Soviet-era BRDM-2 armored scout cars are being brought out of storage, likely due to the diminishing reserves of better-protected and more spacious armored personnel carriers (APCs).

On the front lines, Russian forces continue modifying UAZ-452 vans — nicknamed “bukhanka” or “loaf” for their bread-like shape — by adding anti-drone grills to turn them into improvised combat vehicles. They are also producing “hybrid” tanks, such as the T-80BVK outfitted with a T-90A turret and extra armor repurposed from infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs). Russian soldiers also recorded the arming of an RBU-6000 anti-submarine rocket launcher mounted onto a wheeled chassis — using a sledgehammer to assist them in the process.

Previous weekly summary (Oct. 12 to Oct. 18, 2024):

Weekly Ukraine war summary: “dragon’s teeth” in the Russian rear, North Korean soldiers in Russia, Australia to supply Abrams to the AFU