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Outdated tankers from the so-called “shadow fleet” transporting Russian crude pose the acute threat of a major oil spill in the Baltic Sea, according to a Greenpeace study made available to The Insider on Sept. 24.
In their research, the NGO’s experts analyzed four years of vessel movement data, focusing on tankers departing from Russian Baltic Sea ports such as Primorsk, St. Petersburg, Ust-Luga, and Vysotsk, and traveling along the German coastline — one of the main routes used by ships transporting oil from Russia’s ports to international waters.
Since the European Union stopped importing seaborne Russian oil in 2023, Russia has turned to exporting higher volumes of crude by sea to destinations much further afield, the study's authors noted. According to Greenpeace’s analysis, which was based on data from the British firm Lloyd's List Intelligence, nearly 1,000 oil tankers passed through the Baltic Sea in 2023 alone — a record high.
Greenpeace modeled the potential consequences of an oil spill by deploying special buoys with GPS trackers along the tankers’ routes. The buoys’ movement demonstrated the potential scale of an oil slick along Germany's coast and identified the areas that could potentially be at risk.
The experts concluded that exporting Russian oil using aging “shadow fleet” vessels poses a significant environmental threat — not only to Germany, but to the entire Baltic region, including the Gulf of Finland, where the ships start their journeys. In the event of an oil spill, coastal areas near the German cities of Rostock, Lübeck, and Kiel would be at risk, according to the study. Greenpeace’s experts also believe that an oil disaster in the Baltic Sea is only a matter of time.
Furthermore, an accident could threaten the water supply of St. Petersburg, Russia's second-largest city, as waves from the Gulf of Finland might reach the Neva River, the city's main drinking water source. Ports in St. Petersburg and the surrounding Leningrad Region are the primary locations where oil is loaded onto these tankers.
Experts have observed a decline in the quality of vessels transporting Russian crude oil since prior to the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, with the average tanker age rising from 8.9 years in 2021 to 16.6 years in 2024. The increased corrosion and wear on these older vessels heightens the risk of accidents. Many of these tankers are registered in countries like Panama and Gabon, which require minimal owner information and have lax safety standards. There has also been a surge in tankers sailing under the flag of the landlocked Central African Republic, leading to frequent technical malfunctions onboard.
The study also highlights that numerous tankers travel through protected natural zones like the Fehmarn Belt and Kadetrinne — areas prone to groundings and collisions. Greenpeace is calling on the German government to provide insurance coverage for these vessels and support from local pilots so that they can navigate these complex routes. It also stressed the need for thorough inspections to ensure the seaworthiness of the tankers.
The “shadow fleet” plays a critical role in enabling Russia to circumvent sanctions, allowing Moscow to continue filling its coffers from oil exports by selling to buyers willing to ignore or bypass international restrictions. This network has become more prominent since the European Union and G7 countries implemented a price cap on Russian oil, making it harder for Russia to sell oil through conventional, regulated means.
An investigation by The Insider on Sept. 24 identified one of the key players enabling the operation of the “shadow fleet”: Latvian citizen Aleksejs Haļavins. Two entities affiliated with the businessman are known to have purchased oil from Russian oil company Surgutneftegaz at a price above the cap, bringing the Russian corporation an additional $1.4 billion in revenue. Other companies linked with Haļavins operated tankers carrying oil from Russia to India and China.